Modeling Distribution Responses to Climate Change:
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Point Blue Conservation Science    

Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes
a Climate Smart Planning Tool

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Attention

(Dec 2013) We are currently revising the sea level rise visualizations for this website with updated projections.
We are also improving the user experience to give you better tools to explore these data.
Please contact Julian Wood and Sam Veloz if you have any questions or need further information.
We expect to have this site back up again later this month. Thank you for your patience.

 

Explore Other Data

 

Sea Level Rise:

0.52 meters
1.65 meters
 

Sediment:

Low availability
High availability
 

Organic Material:

Low Accumulation
High Accumulation
 

Other layers:

Public lands
Diked areas
Model Subregions
Urbanization

Conservation:

Explore Other Data

Bird Species:

 
Probability   Density
 

Sea Level Rise:

0.52 meters
1.65 meters

Sediment:

Low availability
High availability
 

Other layers:

Public lands
Diked areas
Model Subregions
Urbanization

Conservation:

Explore Other Data

Vegetation Species:

 

Sea Level Rise:

0.52 meters
1.65 meters

Sediment:

Low availability
High availability
 

Other layers:

Public lands
Diked areas
Model Subregions
Urbanization

Conservation:

Explore Other Data

The maps show priority areas for conservation of tidal marsh birds given current and future environmental conditions. Maps were created using Zonation, a spatial conservation planning software tool that can take into account multiple species and scenarios to create a hierarchical prioritization of the landscape.

Explore Other Data

 

Sea Level Rise:

0.52 meters
1.65 meters
 

Sediment:

Low availability
High availability
 

Organic Material:

Low Accumulation
High Accumulation
 

Other layers:

Public lands
Diked areas
Model Subregions
Urbanization

Marsh Reports:

Current Projections
Elevation
Current Projections
Birds
Current Projections
Vegetation
Current Projections
Wave Impact
Rank based on
current bird distributions
      Future Projections
2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
      Future Projections
2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
      Future Projections
2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
      Future Projections
2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
Rank based on current
and future distributions

Why use this tool for Conservation Planning?


  • The models generating these maps are the first to take into account the ability of marshes to accrete, or keep up with, rising sea levels, in the San Francisco Bay Estuary.
  • Point Blue has generated a series of scenarios to provide a range of projections to address the uncertainty in future rates of sea-level rise and suspended sediment availability.
  • Our maps cover the entire Estuary allowing for analyses at multiple spatial scales.
  • This tool displays maps created at a high spatial resolution using the best available elevation data. The website will be continually updated as new data becomes available
  • The tool is the first to provide spatially explicit projections of vegetation and bird distributions throughout the Estuary

The Point Blue Sea-Level Rise Tool will help you:


  • View and query maps to understand how sea level rise may change the extent of tidal marsh habitat and bird species distribution over the next 100 years
  • Make informed decisions about adaptation planning, restoration potential, and land acquisition given various sea-level rise and sedimentation scenarios.
  • Identify areas both vulnerable and resilient to future sea-level rise.

Using this website


Start by selecting the type of data you wish to explore above. Move your mouse over any to get more information about each selection.

Publications


We have published the results of our marsh accretion modeling in PLoS ONE. A demonstration of the use of our bird models and conservation prioritization maps to select high quality restoration projects that are robust to our uncertainty in future conditions has been published in Ecosphere.

We present the methods and results of our conservation prioritization and modeling of tidal marsh bird and vegetation response to sea level rise in a technical report to the CA State Coastal Conservancy (updating an earlier report to the CA Landscape Conservation Cooperative).

We completed a demographic analysis of four San Francisco Bay marsh species. A technical report was completed for the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative that includes a modeling tool to evaluate management actions, and a stochastic and spatially-implicit population model of a salt-marsh species that incorporates climate change and sea-level rise effects.

Tidal Marsh

Photo by Peter Baye

   Habitat Type

 Above +0.3m (Upland)
 0.2m to +0.3m (High Marsh)
 -0.2m to +0.1m (Mid Marsh)
 -0.5m to -0.3m (Low Marsh)
 -1.8m to -0.6m (Mudflat)
 -2.4 m to -1.8m (Subtidal)
 Bay water level
 No Data

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
  40% - 60%
 20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
  40% - 60%
 20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
  40% - 60%
 20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
  40% - 60%
 20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
  40% - 60%
 20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
  40% - 60%
 20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

   Density

  6 - 7
  5 - 6
  4 - 5
  3 - 4
  2 - 3
  1 - 2
  0 - 1
 No Data

   Density

  0.15 - 0.61
  0.1 - 0.15
  0.075 - 0.1
  0.05 - 0.075
  0.025 - 0.05
  0 - 0.025
 No Data

   Density

  5 - 8
  4 - 5
  3 - 4
  2 - 3
  1 - 2
  0 - 1
 No Data

   Density

  20 - 28
  15 - 20
  12 - 15
  10 - 12
  7 - 10
  5 - 7
  0 - 5
 No Data

   Density

  20 - 28
  15 - 20
  12 - 15
  10 - 12
  7 - 10
  5 - 7
  0 - 5
 No Data

bird

Photo (c) Peter LaTourrette

bird

Photo (c) Peter LaTourrette

bird

Photo (c) Peter LaTourrette

bird

Photo (c) Peter LaTourrette

bird

Photo (c) Peter LaTourrette

   Probability of Occurrence

  80% - 100%
  60% - 80%
 40% - 60%
  20% - 40%
  0% - 20%
 No Data

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) by Curtis Clark

veg

Photo (c) Petaluma Wetlands Alliance

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

veg

Photo (c) Calflora

   Landscape Rank

 0.96 - 1.00
 0.91 - 0.95
 0.76 - 0.90
 0.51 - 0.75
 0.31 - 0.50
 0 - 0.30

   Wave Impact

 95 - 100%
 85 - 95%
 75 - 85%
 65 - 75%
 55 - 65%
 45 - 55%
 35 - 45%
 25 - 35%
 15 - 25%
  5 - 15%
  0 - 5%

This material is based upon work supported by several grants and charitable donations listed here. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in the material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service or Point Blue Conservation Science.

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